No. 2 Ohio State travels to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday night for a Halloween showdown with USC, and this Ohio State vs USC preview starts with the question hanging over the whole game: who plays quarterback for the Buckeyes?
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 31, on NBC. Ohio State arrives 6-1 overall and 4-0 in the Big Ten, while USC is 6-2 overall and 3-2 in conference play. It is the first meeting between the programs as Big Ten opponents, and Ohio State’s first visit to the Coliseum in 18 years. USC leads the all-time series 13-10-1.
Ohio State vs USC preview: the stakes
Both teams still have plenty to play for, but the margin for error is very different. Ohio State, ranked No. 2, is chasing a Big Ten title and a College Football Playoff spot, and a road win at the Coliseum would keep that path clear. USC, unranked after last week’s loss, is trying to rescue its own playoff hopes in the first of three straight games against ranked opponents, with trips to No. 4 Indiana and No. 7 UCLA still to come.
The Buckeyes have won five straight games since their Week 2 loss to Texas. Their most recent outing was a hard-fought 19-15 win at then-No. 5 Indiana on October 17, a game they survived despite losing their starting quarterback. They have had a bye week since to prepare for this trip.
A new quarterback for the Buckeyes
Ohio State will be without starting quarterback Julian Sayin, who injured his throwing arm in the fourth quarter of the Indiana win and is out indefinitely. Coach Ryan Day has said the Buckeyes are planning to move forward without him, and the team has not announced a starter between freshman Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair. Day has hinted both could play on Saturday.
Sayin’s absence removes 2,007 passing yards and 19 touchdown passes from the Ohio State offense. Fahey has completed 9 of 13 passes for 203 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions this season, while St. Clair has completed 5 of 7 passes for 52 yards. Neither has anything close to Sayin’s experience, and Fahey would be starting in his home state if he gets the call.
What has not changed is the talent around the quarterback. Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has nearly 1,000 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns through seven games, and he remains the most dangerous weapon on either roster. Ohio State also averages 39.3 points per game and allows just 13.4 points per game, one of the best defensive marks in the country. The Buckeyes’ defense, led by a front that has consistently pressured opposing quarterbacks, is the unit USC must solve.
Ohio State is also dealing with a long injury list. Ten players were ruled out on the latest Big Ten availability report, including running back Ja’Kobi Jackson and wide receiver Brock Boyd, while receivers Brandon Inniss and cornerback Jay Timmons are questionable. There is better news elsewhere: offensive lineman Austin Siereveld and defensive end Kenyatta Jackson Jr. have been cleared to play.
USC needs a response after Wisconsin
USC could hardly have picked a worse way to enter this game. The Trojans were stunned 24-7 at Wisconsin last week, finishing with minus-17 rushing yards and allowing five sacks while quarterback Jayden Maiava threw two interceptions. It was the first time all season USC had been held below 25 points.
Maiava still leads a talented offense. He has thrown for more than 2,300 yards this season, King Miller has rushed for more than 600 yards, and Kayden Dixon-Wyatt leads the receivers with 443 yards. USC averages 32.8 points per game, but that attack now faces an Ohio State defensive front that is far more dangerous than the one that overwhelmed the Trojans in Madison.
The key matchup is straightforward: USC’s offensive line against Ohio State’s defensive line. Wisconsin exposed the Trojans up front, with no USC carry longer than 7 yards in that game. If the Trojans cannot protect Maiava or establish any run game, the Buckeyes’ defense can take over the night. USC also has its own injury concerns, with tight end Mark Bowman questionable after missing three straight games and several other players out or questionable.
Prediction: what to watch on Saturday night (analysis)
This section is analysis, not a result. The prediction below is an opinion based on the verified facts above.
Ohio State’s quarterback situation makes this game closer than the rankings suggest. A freshman quarterback on the road, in a sold-out Coliseum at night, is a genuine test, and USC’s offense has the talent to score quickly if it gets protection. But the matchup that decides most games like this one is in the trenches, and Ohio State’s defense against a USC offensive line that just gave up five sacks is a mismatch in the Buckeyes’ favor.
Expect Ohio State to lean on its running game and short passing game to protect its new quarterback, feed Jeremiah Smith in the red zone, and let its defense control the second half. USC will need its best offensive line performance of the season to keep this close into the fourth quarter. Prediction: Ohio State 27, USC 20.
What to watch next: the winner keeps its playoff hopes firmly alive, while the loser faces a much harder road. Ohio State closes against Oregon, Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan, while USC still must visit Indiana and UCLA. Saturday night at the Coliseum will tell us a lot about both teams.
For more from this week, see our recap of the Packers’ 27-19 Thursday night win over the Panthers and our preview of the Lakers-Warriors NBA Cup matchup.
