The Chicago Cubs have one game to keep their season alive. The San Diego Padres have one win to book a division series date with the Milwaukee Brewers.
After an 8-0 Padres win in Game 1, the Cubs vs Padres National League Wild Card Series shifts to Game 2 on Wednesday night at Petco Park. First pitch is set for 10 p.m. ET.
Where the series stands
San Diego leads the best-of-three series 1-0. A Padres win ends it. A Cubs win sends the series to a deciding Game 3 at Petco Park on Thursday.
History favors the Padres. Since MLB adopted the three-game Wild Card format, 15 of the 16 teams that won Game 1 have advanced. Roughly 70% of these series have ended in sweeps.
The teams arrive on different trajectories. The Padres finished 91-71 and closed the regular season 18-4. The Cubs went 89-73 and slid late in the Wild Card race, after ranking among the league’s best teams for much of the year.
What happened in Game 1
The game was effectively decided in the first inning.
Fernando Tatis Jr. homered on the first pitch of the night, off Matthew Boyd’s changeup. ESPN noted it was the first leadoff homer in Padres playoff history. Manny Machado followed with a home run two batters later. Xander Bogaerts added a third homer in the fourth. All three came off the changeup.
Boyd lasted four innings and allowed four runs. He had not opened a start with a changeup in nearly two years, and he said afterward that his execution, not the pitch choice, was the problem.
On the other side, Michael King took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and finished with seven scoreless innings. The Cubs collected three hits, and Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman went a combined 0-for-7 at the top of the order. Catcher Carson Kelly was charged with a throwing error and two passed balls, which helped San Diego stretch the lead.
The Game 2 pitching matchup
Cubs: Kevin Gausman. He was the centerpiece of Chicago’s trade-deadline haul. He finished the regular season 9-12 with a 4.51 ERA, and went 4-2 with a 4.83 ERA in nine starts for the Cubs. His health is the bigger story. He banged his left shoulder on a diving tag play in the final week of the regular season. Counsell named him the Game 2 starter after Game 1, and Gausman said his shoulder felt “good enough to go out there and give it everything I’ve got.” He also said he has had to feel out small adjustments to his movements.
Padres: Nick Pivetta. He missed most of the season with a right elbow injury and returned in September. He enters Game 2 with a 2.86 ERA. In four September starts, he allowed three runs in 18⅔ innings while striking out 18 and walking two.
The bullpen gap
In this Cubs vs Padres matchup, the rested San Diego bullpen may be the biggest edge. King’s seven innings meant San Diego used only Yuki Matsui and Joe Musgrove in relief. ESPN reported that Mason Miller and Adrian Morejón were untouched and will be rested, each capable of covering multiple innings on Wednesday. Pivetta doesn’t need to go deep for the Padres to have a short path to the finish.
What the Cubs need to do
- Score early. No team scored more runs than Chicago this season, and a 3-hit night is out of character. Getting to Pivetta before the late-inning arms arrive is the clearest route.
- Get Crow-Armstrong and Bregman on base. The top of the order went silent in Game 1, and the Cubs’ offense runs through them.
- Keep the ball in the park. The Cubs allowed 231 home runs this season, the most in the National League. San Diego’s lineup showed it can exploit mistakes.
- Clean up the catching. The passed balls and throwing error in Game 1 turned a blowout into a rout.
What the Padres need to do
- Stay aggressive early. San Diego swung at 10 of Boyd’s 11 first-inning pitches and punished the mistakes.
- Get length from Pivetta. Even five strong innings would hand a rested bullpen a short game to finish.
- Protect the lead late. With Miller and Morejón available, the Padres can shorten the game once they have the lead.
US Sports Media Analysis
The following is editorial analysis, not reporting.
The matchup is closer than Game 1 suggests. The Cubs scored more runs than any team in baseball and won’t be that quiet two nights in a row. A single-game sample of three hits says more about King’s night than it does about Chicago’s lineup.
The problem is what a Cubs win requires. They must beat a rested bullpen with a starter who is healthy enough but still feeling out his shoulder. Gausman’s 4.51 ERA doesn’t point to a dominant outing, and his line with the Cubs was uneven. The Cubs’ best path is for the lineup to build an early lead that forces San Diego to use its best relievers before the seventh.
For the Padres, the math is simpler. Pivetta has been excellent since coming back, and the bullpen is rested. If San Diego scores first, the Cubs’ margin for error disappears.
Date, time and how to watch
- Game: NL Wild Card Series, Game 2 (Padres lead 1-0)
- Date: Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026
- First pitch: 10 p.m. ET / 9 p.m. CT / 7 p.m. PT
- Venue: Petco Park, San Diego
- TV/streaming: Peacock and NBCSN
- Probable pitchers: Kevin Gausman (Cubs) vs. Nick Pivetta (Padres)
What happens next
The Cubs vs Padres series will either end Wednesday night or move to a decisive Game 3 on Thursday. If San Diego wins, it advances to face the Brewers, who own the best record in baseball, in the best-of-five NL Division Series. If Chicago wins, the teams play a winner-take-all Game 3 at Petco Park on Thursday, Oct. 1 at 10 p.m. ET.
Sources: MLB.com (Jordan Bastian), Boyd’s Game 1 recap, ESPN, Game 1 recap, Chicago Sun-Times, Gausman Game 2 start